Oil prices have seen significant increases since the onset of conflicts in Iran and the broader Middle East. Despite this rise, the Brent crude oil price has not consistently crossed the $100 mark, even though analysts suggest this level may soon be within reach due to unforeseen events such as the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf. According to commodity analyst Bjarne Schieldrop from SEB, the oil market has not yet faced the critical turning point that could lead to unpredictable price surges.

Schieldrop indicates that the trajectory of oil prices will largely depend on the duration of the crisis in the region. He stated that the next phase, particularly the second month of the conflict, will be crucial in determining whether oil prices will significantly soar. Recent figures show Brent crude has fluctuated around $80 per barrel recently, suggesting that while there has been an uptick, it is still manageable for major consumers like the USA. Schieldrop argued that current prices are not excruciatingly painful for the US economy, as it has sustained similar or higher average prices over the past two years.

The overarching outlook remains uncertain and heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly in Iran, amid ongoing regional conflicts that could disrupt supply chains and trigger further price rises. Analysts are keeping a close eye on market trends, aiming to predict vulnerabilities as tensions evolve, particularly in the context of energy supply from this volatile region.