Former President Donald Trump's recent call for an Iranian uprising, following US airstrikes, has sparked skepticism among experts who warn of the resilience of Iran's authoritarian regime. Despite Trump's hopes that aerial assaults might foster civil dissent against the government, reports indicate an increasing consolidation of power by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other security agencies. Notably, airstrikes by Israel targeted key security figures within Iran, aiming to weaken the government's control and embolden popular dissent.

According to analysts, the expectation that bombing would destabilize the IRGC is an unsubstantiated gamble. Ali Vaez, from the International Crisis Group, pointed out that Trump’s perception fails to recognize the entrenched authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The potential for a civil uprising seems delusional given the historical resilience of such regime structures. With the heavy hand of the IRGC already responsible for oppressing prior protests that resulted in thousands of deaths, an increase in civilian casualties due to foreign attacks could paradoxically strengthen the Iranian regime’s grip on power, according to expert observations.

Moreover, Iranian authorities have employed measures such as strict internet controls to inhibit communication and unity among citizens, making it increasingly difficult for any credible opposition to form. The context of Trump's inflammatory rhetoric is compounded by the fortified nature of Iran's security apparatus, which is not only focusing on military responses but also on reinforcing security measures to ensure regime continuity amidst perceived external threats.