In the lead-up to the state election on March 8, the CDU in Baden-Württemberg is shifting its focus from attacking the AfD to targeting the Greens and their leading candidate. For the CDU, the primary concern has shifted from whether they can win to how convincingly they can secure that victory. There is speculation about whether a solid win could allow the CDU to form a government with the FDP and potentially exclude the Greens after a decade of being their junior partner.

The strategy involves a last-minute effort by CDU candidate Hagel to reposition the party’s priorities and appeal to voters who might feel conflicted about supporting a right-wing populist party like the AfD. This risky maneuver could alienate some supporters but aims to solidify the conservative base by mobilizing against the Greens, traditionally seen as a direct ideological opponent. The outcome remains uncertain, with a fine balance to tread between consolidating old loyalties and appealing to new ones.

The implications of this campaign strategy could significantly impact the electoral landscape in Baden-Württemberg. The CDU's decision to concentrate its attack on the Greens reflects broader national trends where the environmental party has been increasingly scrutinized, especially regarding their governing record. How successfully the CDU manages this shift will likely influence their standing in the upcoming election and possibly re-shape the coalition dynamics within the state government.