The article discusses the concerning state of the Russian economy, which is teetering on the brink of stagflation, as confirmed by major Russian economic institutions and reported by Ukraine's intelligence service.
The latest report from Ukraine's foreign intelligence service indicated that Russia's economy is showing signs of stagflation, with critical data highlighting an impending recession by November 2025. According to prominent economic institutions such as the Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting Center, Higher School of Economics, and the Central Bank of Russia, all closely linked to the Kremlin, the composite leading indicator has surpassed the critical threshold of 0.12 points, pointing towards serious economic troubles ahead.
In recent months, the indicators have revealed a troubling trend, especially concerning the symmetrical recovery rate from recession, which declined noticeably from 0.10 points in October 2025 to just 0.05 points by November. This data not only suggests a high probability of recession for the Russian economy but also indicates a diminished capacity to recover swiftly from it, as outlined in the intelligence report.
The implications of this economic downturn are significant, especially in the context of rising gas prices across Europe, which some analysts suggest may be part of a strategy employed by Putin to exert political pressure. The report underscores that without intervention or significant policy changes, the Russian economy may struggle to regain its footing amidst geopolitical tensions and internal economic challenges.
