The ongoing war in the Middle East has begun to exert influence on several sectors of the Brazilian economy, with oil being a critical component. In January 2026 alone, Brazil exported 75 million barrels of oil, solidifying its status as a key player in the oil export market. Economists suggest that Brazil's position as a producer and exporter of oil affords it some protection against immediate negative repercussions from the Middle Eastern conflict, as rising oil prices can lead to increased national revenue.

André Perfeito, an economist, highlights that Brazil's situation is unique compared to most countries, as it maintains a surplus balance in oil and derivatives. The increase in oil prices could enhance the influx of dollars into Brazil, positively affecting the country's reputation in the commodities sector, especially regarding oil exports. This situation creates an opportunity for Brazil to capitalize on its oil resources amid global uncertainty.

Additionally, as oil prices rise, Brazilian export revenues are expected to increase, along with greater government revenues from royalties and special participations linked to oil production. This scenario presents both a challenge and an opportunity for Brazil, suggesting that while the Middle Eastern conflict presents risks, it may also bolster Brazil's economy in the short term due to its significant oil export capabilities.