The recent tensions between the U.S. and Israel against Iran could trigger a massive refugee crisis, one that may surpass any humanitarian emergency seen since World War II. The Cato Institute, a U.S. think tank, projects that should the conflict escalate, as many as 23 million people could be forced to flee Iran. Currently, the already strained border crossings to Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia are overwhelmed with Iranian citizens seeking safety amidst these rising tensions.

Iran, which has a population exceeding 92 million, also hosts around 3.5 million refugees, primarily from Afghanistan. The situation within Iran is precarious, with concerns that if the government were to collapse or if civil war were to erupt due to ongoing military conflicts, a mass exodus could occur, comparable to the Syrian refugee crisis that saw 6 million people flee from 2011 to 2024, representing about 25% of Syria's population. Such circumstances would present considerable challenges for neighboring countries and international humanitarian organizations.

With the potential for up to 10% of Iran's population to flee in the worst-case scenario, the implications for regional stability and international response are profound. This looming crisis not only raises questions about immediate humanitarian needs but also about the long-term integration and security challenges that affect both the countries receiving these refugees and Iran's internal stability going forward.