Will the Middle East Witness a New Sykes-Picot Agreement in 2026?
The article discusses the possibility of a new Sykes-Picot agreement in the Middle East due to evolving geopolitical dynamics, particularly the ongoing military confrontation between Israel, the United States, and Iran.
In an opinion piece published in Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli writer Meir Suisa posits that the current military clash between Israel and the United States on one side and Iran on the other could signal a significant reconfiguration of the political landscape in the Middle East. This conflict may not merely represent a traditional war but could be a pivotal moment that reshapes the political map that has largely been defined by the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916. The author suggests that the region is experiencing a gradual dissolution of the nation-state model that emerged under the arrangements established by this agreement, which may allow traditional identities and local loyalties to resurface in various areas.
Moreover, Suisa critiques the concept of a 'Shia empire' that Iran has been pursuing, describing it as artificial and fragile. He connects Iran's influence in several Arab countries to a network of cross-border military and political alliances, highlighting how the decline of Iranian proxies' strength illustrates the limitations of ideology as a stabilizing factor on the ground, especially as the military capacity of these forces wanes. This is particularly relevant in locations such as Beirut, Damascus, and Sana'a, where the influence of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has notably diminished.
Overall, the article presents a foreboding perspective that suggests the potential for major transformations in the geopolitical order of the Middle East, hinting at the re-emergence of local power dynamics that challenge the overarching nation-state framework established a century ago. As these changes unfold, the region may indeed find itself entering a new era reminiscent of the historical Sykes-Picot Agreement, impacting national identities and geopolitical alignments significantly.