Economist Gabriel Felbermayr, who has recently assumed the role of an economic advisor in Germany, argues that the ongoing war in Iran has significant implications for global economics, particularly for China and the United States. He highlights that while the war is dampening economic growth in the short term—citing that a ten-dollar increase in oil prices decreases growth by about 0.1 percentage points in developed economies—there are potential long-term benefits if the current Iranian regime were to collapse, allowing Iran to reintegrate into the global economy. This reintegration could present substantial economic opportunities, especially for Germany and Europe at large.

In his analysis, Felbermayr emphasizes the pressing concern over rising energy prices, stating that the considerable uncertainty stemming from this conflict poses additional risks to economic stability. He notes that along with soaring oil prices, Europe is also facing heightened gas prices, exacerbating the economic slowdown. However, Felbermayr remains optimistic about the potential aftermath of the conflict, believing that a shift in power in Iran could lead to a revitalization of economic growth and opportunities for trade and investment in Europe.

Additionally, he acknowledges the feasibility of implementing measures such as capping fuel prices to mitigate immediate economic impacts, indicating that proactive policies could be effective in handling the crisis. Overall, Felbermayr's perspective sheds light on the multifaceted effects of the Iran war, suggesting that while there are immediate challenges, there may also be significant long-term advantages for Germany and the global economy if the situation unfolds favorably.