On the fourth day of the ongoing war in the Middle East, American and Israeli air forces notably targeted a building in Iran that houses the Assembly of Experts, which plays a crucial role in selecting the country’s new supreme leader. Meanwhile, Israel intensified its ground offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, a close ally of Iran, as Iranian retaliations continue to target countries allied with the United States in the region. The volatile situation has led to hundreds of deaths and uncertainty regarding the future of the Iranian regime, compounded by new threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.

Amid rising tensions and violence, global oil prices have surged dramatically, with Brent crude exceeding $85 per barrel for the first time since July 2024. This sharp increase reflects the market's worries about potential disruptions to oil production in the Middle East due to the war. The conflict particularly complicates the logistics of oil transport, as Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for about 20% of the world's oil production, since the weekend.

This blockade, paired with the ongoing military actions, poses significant threats to the stability of global oil supply chains and could result in further price increases if the conflict escalates. Countries reliant on oil imports from the Middle East are closely monitoring developments, while analysts await to see how these geopolitical factors will shape the future of global oil markets and production dynamics in the region.