The Brazilian Ministry of Finance's Economic Policy Secretariat has forecasted a notable acceleration of the GDP in early 2026, with an expected growth rate of nearly 1% from the last quarter of 2025. This growth is largely attributed to an increase in disposable income for families, stemming from an expansion of income tax exemptions for workers. The positive economic impact is associated with government policies designed to boost household financial capacity, promoting consumer spending.

Despite the anticipated strong start to 2026, the Ministry cautions that this growth phase may be followed by a gradual deceleration as the benefits of the public policies begin to wane. Factors such as a potential reduction in credit costs and the Central Bank's anticipated interest rate cuts could mitigate this slowdown, offering some support to the economy. This nuanced outlook highlights the balancing act of maintaining growth while addressing the challenges posed by changing economic conditions.

For the entirety of 2026, the Economic Policy Secretariat projects an overall GDP growth of 2.3%, in line with previous forecasts made in February and consistent with the growth rate observed in 2025, which was recently confirmed by data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The report shows that the economy grew by 0.1% in the last quarter of 2025, which paints a picture of a cautiously optimistic economic environment that may hinge on effective implementation of fiscal policies and ongoing adjustments in monetary policy.