The EU Agency for Asylum has issued a warning regarding the risk of a significant flow of refugees from Iran, highlighting the potential consequences of political instability and unrest in the country. Currently, the number of asylum applications from Iranians in the EU and neighboring countries is relatively low, with only 8,000 requests reported in 2025, especially when compared to larger numbers from Afghan (117,000) and Venezuelan (91,000) nationals.

The report underscores that Iran's population of approximately 90 million means that even a partial destabilization could lead to unprecedented refugee flows. The authors emphasize that a displacement of just 10% of the Iranian population could rival the largest refugee movements seen in recent decades. This viewpoint reflects growing concerns about the social and political situation in Iran, particularly in light of recent conflicts that may exacerbate the crisis.

As the EU grapples with managing existing asylum demands and declining application rates—down nearly 20%—the warning from the agency serves as a critical reminder of the fluid dynamics surrounding refugee movements. Policymakers will need to remain vigilant and prepared for the possibility that future unrest in Iran could prompt a substantial increase in asylum requests, necessitating coordinated responses from EU member states and humanitarian organizations.