The recent analysis by the Conflavoro Studies Center, presented by president Roberto Capobianco, warns of unprecedented economic repercussions for Italy due to the escalating situation in the Middle East, specifically following the joint attack by Israel and the US against Iran. A prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could cause an overall impact of up to 33 billion euros within six months, representing about 1.5% of Italy's GDP, with manufacturing potentially experiencing a peak impact of 3.5%. Additionally, family energy bills could rise by 30-40%, significantly straining household finances.

Capobianco emphasizes the critical role of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes and Italy imports a significant portion of its energy supplies worth 9.6 billion euros from the Persian Gulf. In a worst-case scenario, the price of crude oil is projected to soar by 75-80%, along with logistical costs increasing by 25-30%. These rising costs could lead to energy rationing for non-strategic industries, significantly affecting production capabilities across various sectors.

The report also highlights alarming projections concerning employment, estimating that around 200,000 jobs could be at risk, while workers may face 7-8 million hours of redundancy. With energy-intensive industries potentially witnessing production declines of up to 20%, the situation calls for urgent attention from both policymakers and economic leaders to mitigate a looming economic crisis affecting Italian families and businesses alike.