Mar 2 • 22:00 UTC 🇧🇷 Brazil Folha (PT)

Uncertainties about the impact on supply and duration of the war limit the spike in oil prices

Despite initial alarming projections, the price of Brent crude oil only rose to $82.37 amid the conflict with Iran, well below analysts' expectations.

As the conflict with Iran began, initial projections suggested a dramatic increase in global oil prices, with some analysts predicting prices exceeding $100 per barrel. However, the reality has proved to be more restrained, with the price of Brent crude peaking at $82.37 and currently stabilizing around $78. This increase represents a 13% rise from $72.48, yet it remains significantly below the most alarming forecasts.

The moderated rise in oil prices suggests that investors are currently optimistic about the supply chain, anticipating that there will not be a significant disruption in oil supply over the coming weeks. Many market observers believe that the conflict is likely to be short-lived, which has contributed to the limited price volatility observed so far. This stance demonstrates a cautious approach from the market, balancing concerns about geopolitical instability with a belief in market resilience.

Overall, while the situation remains fluid, the restrained reaction in oil prices highlights the complexity of the global energy market and the influence of geopolitical events on pricing. Investors and analysts alike will be closely monitoring the developments in the region to assess any potential long-term impacts on oil supply and pricing dynamics.

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