Following the announcement of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in a US-Israeli attack, Russian analysts have characterized the situation as a life-or-death struggle for Iran's regime. They highlight Tehran's immediate condemnation of the action and threats of unprecedented retaliation, including a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to deter US naval presence in the Gulf region. This suggests a growing tension that could provoke further military confrontations in the area.

Feodor Lukyanov, a prominent analyst from the Valdai Discussion Club, pointed out that the Iranian regime has historically shown resilience despite external pressures and has evolved over the past 47 years. He emphasizes that Khamenei's death does not necessarily signify the regime's collapse; rather, it might initiate a new phase of leadership transition. However, he warns that ongoing economic protests within the country could exacerbate internal strife and complicate the succession process.

Lukyanov also noted a decline in the motivational power of Iranian ideology in recent years. This loss of ideological strength adds another layer of difficulty for the regime as it navigates both external threats and internal discontent. The interplay between these challenges could significantly influence Iran's political landscape moving forward, especially in light of rising tensions in its relationship with Western powers.