On March 1, the Strait of Hormuz experienced a historic, nearly total disruption of shipping lanes, prompting JP Morgan to revise its oil price expectations significantly. This unprecedented event has led analysts at the American bank to conclude that their previous assumptions about the low probability of such a major disruption have 'collapsed,' necessitating a reevaluation of geopolitical risks and the resilience of global energy trade. The halt in operations followed a large-scale joint military operation by the US and Israel against Iran, which has been presented by the US President as a strategy aimed not only at diminishing Tehran's military capabilities but also at fostering conditions for political upheaval.

As a result of these developments, JP Morgan is now anticipating an immediate recalibration of geopolitical risk pricing in the oil market. The bank predicts that the price of Brent crude, which was $73 per barrel as of February 27, could rise to a range of $80 to $85 per barrel. This anticipated increase reflects the heightened tensions and uncertainties in the region, raising concerns among market participants regarding the stability of oil supply and prices. The implications of this price surge could ripple through global markets, influencing energy policy and economic decision-making across various countries as they adjust to the new realities of geopolitical dynamics surrounding oil trade.