In his article, Fyodor Lukyanov draws a stark comparison between the US military operations against Iraq in 2003 and the current geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran. He highlights that the US-led invasion of Iraq, initially perceived as a rapid and successful campaign, led to unintended and destabilizing consequences in the region. Instead of establishing a new order, the aftermath of the invasion plunged the Middle East into chaos, challenging the notion that the US could easily reshape regional dynamics.

Lukyanov posits that the inability of the United States to stabilize Iraq has long-term implications, particularly as it pertains to its relationship with Iran. As of winter 2026, the US and Israel have initiated Operation Epic Fury against Iran, marking Iran as their principal adversary stemming from the legacy of the Iraq War. The complexity of the Iranian landscape is underscored, as Lukyanov argues that the challenges faced in this new military endeavor are significantly greater than those during the Iraq campaign, rendering quick resolutions less likely.

The author concludes with a contemplative note on the current geopolitical climate, suggesting that the lessons learned from Iraq's situation complicate the US's strategic approach towards Iran. The historical context indicates that directly confronting Iran may not yield the intended quick victories, and the repercussions of the Iraq War continue to influence American foreign policy decisions in the region.