In a recent assessment, geopolitical expert Māris Andžāns evaluated Iran's chances in its armed conflict with Israel and the United States, arguing that Iran is unlikely to achieve victory. He cited the previous year's brief conflict that resulted in significant losses and humiliation for Iran as a precursor to the current situation. Andžāns pointed out that the rapid killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei indicates the regime's vulnerabilities, suggesting that the ongoing attacks on Iranian military and political targets are likely to continue for days or even weeks, signaling a dire outlook for Iran.

Andžāns elaborated that Iran's capabilities to retaliate are limited, as they are mostly reliant on ballistic missiles, which may soon be exhausted. He expressed concern that Iran’s actions have inadvertently revealed the locations of its missile sites, further compromising its military position. This exposure could lead to increased targeting by Israeli and US forces, making it more difficult for Iran to regain any semblance of a strategic advantage in the conflict.

Looking ahead, Andžāns speculated on several scenarios for the ongoing conflict, although the specifics were not detailed in his comments. This uncertainty underlines the precarious nature of the conflict, as Iran is caught in a challenging position where its potential responses are severely restricted by recent military developments and the swift actions of its adversaries.