The article argues that US President Donald J. Trump is unlikely to win a Nobel Peace Prize, particularly due to his ongoing military efforts against the Iranian regime alongside Israel. It suggests that Trump has a history of using threats as his primary political tool, which has generally been effective in the past. However, in this particular case with Iran, the effects of such threats may not lead to a quick resolution, as the Iranian regime finds itself cornered and with limited options.

The piece emphasizes that the Iranian government, along with its armed forces, has reached a point where it faces a choice: to capitulate or to continue fighting unconditionally. The author reflects on the missed opportunities for Iran to negotiate peacefully during talks in Geneva, suggesting that these possibilities have now dissipated. Trump’s approach, while aggressive and based on prior successes with threats, may not yield the same results in this complex geopolitical situation.

Overall, the article paints a bleak picture for any quick peace efforts between the US, Israel, and Iran. It implies that the potential for a protracted conflict looms larger now, as the Iranian regime is boxed into a difficult position with severe implications for both regional stability and international relations.