The recent military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran have raised significant concerns about a rapid increase in global oil prices, which could reach $100 per barrel. This prospect has resulted in heightened anxiety within both the government and economic sectors in South Korea due to the potential adverse effects on exports and the financial market. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard's announcement of potential blockages in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical passage for 20% of global oil shipments—has prompted major oil companies to halt operations in the area temporarily. Reports suggest that not only could exports of liquefied natural gas from Qatar be disrupted, but Iran’s own oil production, which totals about 3.1 million barrels per day, may also be significantly impacted.

The oil market is displaying a sensitive reaction to these geopolitical tensions, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading at $75.33 per barrel, marking a 12% increase since the prior week's closing. Industry analysts, including Barclays, forecast that Brent oil prices could surge to $100 per barrel, reflecting a growing apprehension over a possible oil shock comparable to the rise experienced during the Ukraine war in 2022. The South Korea Trade Association has projected that for every 10% increase in oil prices, Korean exports would decline by approximately 0.39% due to decreased volumes, while production costs for companies may rise by 0.38%, with the manufacturing sector experiencing an increase of 0.68%.

In response to these developing crises, the South Korean government has been holding emergency strategy meetings to assess and address the potential impacts on oil prices, exports, and financial markets. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance, Ku Yun-chul, emphasized the need for attentive responses to volatility in international energy prices stemming from Middle Eastern tensions, as South Korea is heavily reliant on energy imports from that region. Discussions have also included adjustments to the operational schedules of oil tankers and securing alternative shipping routes to mitigate potential disruptions in energy supply.