The recent coordinated attack by the US and Israel on Iran has sparked uncertainty in global markets, particularly affecting oil prices and the potential for disruption in energy and trade flows.
On the morning of February 28, 2026, the uncertainty loomed over global markets as the US and Israel conducted a coordinated attack on Iran, prompting an immediate military response from Tehran using missiles and drones. This escalation has opened a range of scenarios for global stability, varying from a contained military episode to a significant escalation that could disrupt energy and trade flows worldwide. The ripple effects of this conflict are expected to impact economies far beyond the immediate regions involved, with specific focus on energy prices and trade markets.
As the conflict unfolded, oil prices were among the first indicators of market reactions, with Brent crude oil closing prior to the attack at $72.48 per barrel. This price included a risk premium due to increasing military tensions and the breakdown of diplomatic negotiations. With markets reopening following the weekend, it will be crucial to observe whether the initial spike in prices is sustained, which will depend heavily on how the situation is perceived by investors — potentially as manageable or as a precursor to larger logistical disruptions.
The implications for Mexico are significant, as fluctuations in oil prices can affect its economy, which relies heavily on energy exports. Should the conflict escalate, it may lead to increased inflation rates as the risk premium filters through the market, impacting consumer prices and economic stability. Furthermore, Mexico's trade relationships may also be reconsidered in light of any resulting changes in global trade dynamics driven by the conflict.
