Iran continues to hold significant influence over global energy markets due to its ability to disrupt oil supplies. A recent price increase of $10 per barrel this year illustrates how seriously market operators regard any threats involving Iran, despite years of American sanctions that have diminished Iran's share of global exports. The key concern centers on Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil and gas from the Gulf, and its support for regional militias that could target energy infrastructure.

Last year, fluctuations in oil prices were noted during the brief conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the US, with initial price surges followed by declines as traders perceived the likelihood of regime change in Tehran to be low. However, this calculation appears to be shifting in the wake of recent attacks, which have rekindled fears of destabilization. Market operators are increasingly worried about potential disruptions, which may lead to sustained price increases.

The impact of these developments is not only significant for oil prices but also for global economic stability. Increased oil prices could trigger inflationary pressures in various economies, particularly in those heavily reliant on oil imports. As tensions rise in the region, the markets will closely monitor Iran's actions and their potential consequences for global energy security and economic growth.