Internal divisions within the Victorian Liberal party have historically hindered its ability to secure government, but a new and formidable opponent is emerging on its right flank: One Nation. Just four years ago, the party struggled to gain traction, receiving only 8,077 first-preference votes, which led to them winning just a single seat in the upper house. However, recent polling suggests a dramatic change in voter sentiment and potential electoral outcomes for One Nation in the upcoming November elections.

Polls conducted early this year portray a much stronger position for One Nation, indicating a significant percentage of voter preferences swinging in their favor. Polls conducted by various organizations suggest that One Nation could receive between 11% to 26.5% of first-preference votes, showcasing a stark rise in support compared to previous elections. This surge is also evident when analyzing the trajectory of voter intentions, with late 2025 polls showing only about 4% of voters leaning towards minor right-wing parties, marking a notable shift in public opinion as the election approaches.

Despite these promising projections for One Nation, analysts caution that these figures come with considerable caveats. Factors such as sample sizes, margins of error, and methodological variability must be taken into account to fully grasp the electoral landscape. As the November elections near, the Victorian Liberal party will need to confront this rising challenge, and it remains to be seen whether they can effectively respond to One Nation's ascendance within the political sphere.