Energy consultancy ICIS has warned that natural gas prices in Europe could triple if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating tensions with the United States. Analysts predict that prices in the Amsterdam TTF gas market could surge to €90 per megawatt-hour, reflecting the severe impact of reduced supply expectations. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for global LNG exports, including significant volumes from Qatar, and its closure would significantly disrupt energy markets.

The context of this warning stems from fears that increasing hostilities in the region could threaten LNG transportation through the Strait, which accounts for about 20% of global LNG exports. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU has sought alternative energy supplies, leading to a more than tripling of imports from Gulf countries, which now amount to roughly €60 billion. This dependency on Gulf energy has heightened the stakes related to the Strait of Hormuz's accessibility, making the stability of energy supplies a pressing issue for European markets.

If Iran were to act on the threat of closing the Strait, analysts expect natural gas prices to remain elevated for several months, projecting a supply reduction of around 14%. This scenario poses a significant risk to energy affordability in Europe, highlighting the delicate balance of geopolitical tensions and energy security. Overall, the situation underscores the lasting impacts of geopolitical conflicts on global energy markets, particularly for regions heavily reliant on imports and alternative sources.