According to a geostrategic forecast by EY-Parthenon, the year 2026 will see geopolitics increasingly influencing the business environment, marking a departure from traditional risk assessments that previously categorized it as just another factor. The world is advancing at an accelerated pace, characterized by abrupt and volatile changes, which highlights the necessity for companies to adapt their strategies in preparation for geopolitical shifts. This transition implies that geopolitics will not only be part of risk analysis but will become foundational to corporate strategy and management decisions.

The changing landscape also emphasizes the growing importance of resilient supply chains and the role of government in the economy. With geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine and the uncertainties surrounding U.S. policies towards Ukraine, businesses must navigate a more complex environment where factors like tariffs, trade restrictions, and strategic access to critical materials become paramount. In this context, the European Union is also focusing on modernizing its industry policies and making strategic investments into crucial areas, both to enhance competitiveness and ensure security.

Overall, companies are advised to integrate these geopolitical insights into their planning and operations, recognizing that the future business environment will demand proactive engagement with political risks. As digitalization and the data economy become more intertwined with security considerations, firms must stay vigilant and responsive to regulatory changes while building stronger relationships with governments to mitigate risks effectively. This reflects a significant pivot in how businesses will operate in the coming years, necessitating a more holistic approach to strategy that incorporates geopolitical realities.