In January, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) reported a sharp decline in crude oil exports, which dropped to 294.4 thousand barrels per day, a 44.6% decrease compared to the same month the previous year. This decline places exports 43.6% below the expected figures outlined by the Ministry of Finance (SHCP), which had projected an average of 521 thousand barrels per day for the year as part of the 2026 Economic Package. This significant shortfall highlights ongoing challenges within Mexico's oil sector amidst shifting government priorities.

The Mexican government, through its energy policies driven by the Ministry of Energy (SENER) and Pemex, has expressed an intention to reduce oil exports to prioritize domestic refining operations. However, the annual projections from the Ministry of Finance still set an export target of 451 thousand barrels per day by 2031, indicating a possible inconsistency between government objectives and actual market conditions. This strategic shift is aimed at bolstering local production to meet domestic fuel needs but raises concerns about revenue impacts.

Additionally, this January's export figures mark the lowest sales level in at least 36 years, which reflects the broader difficulties facing Pemex and the Mexican oil industry. The historical context of these figures illustrates a trend of decreasing oil production capacities and rising domestic consumption that the government must navigate carefully, balancing economic needs against energy independence aspirations.