Iran's oil exports are surging ahead of the third round of nuclear talks with the U.S., reaching historic levels of oil 'on water' as the country aims to expedite shipments before potential new sanctions.
As the third round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran commences in Geneva, Iranian oil exports have seen a significant surge in the last two weeks. The volume of oil loaded onto tankers and en route to markets has reached historically high levels, reflecting Tehran's attempt to accelerate shipments ahead of possible new sanctions. This uptick in oil exports comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tension in the region, particularly considering the uncertainties surrounding the negotiations.
According to a Goldman Sachs analysis, the increase in what is referred to as 'oil on water'—the oil that is floating in storage tankers or waiting for buyers—indicates Iran's strategic move to position itself favorably amid renewed economic pressures. The financial institution has also noted that these geopolitical tensions have contributed to a risk premium of between $5 to $6 per barrel in current oil prices, indicating the market's apprehension around potential disruptions.
Despite recent fluctuations, Goldman Sachs forecasts a gradual de-escalation of geopolitical pressures by 2026, projecting Brent crude oil prices to retreat towards $60 per barrel by the fourth quarter. As of today, Brent is trading slightly above this mark, underscoring the ongoing volatility and uncertainty associated with global oil markets and the implications of U.S.-Iran relations on pricing.
