A recent survey by Norges Bank shows that expectations for wage growth in Norway are higher than last year's projections, with various economic actors predicting an average growth of around 4% by 2026.
According to Norges Bank's expectations survey for the first quarter, there is a general expectation for increased wage growth across different sectors in Norway. Economists predict a wage growth of 4.1% by 2026, which reflects a 0.2 percentage point increase compared to the previous survey results at the end of last year. Similarly, labor market representatives also anticipate a slightly higher wage growth, now forecasting a 4.1% increase as well, marking a 0.3 percentage point rise from earlier expectations. Business leaders are estimating a modest wage growth of 4% within their organizations, alongside household predictions indicating an expected wage and pension increase of around 3%.
However, expectations regarding real wage growth have been adjusted downward. While economists project real wage growth to be 1.3% in 2026, labor market partners believe it will reach only 1.1%. The adjustments in these expectations reflect ongoing discussions and analyses concerning inflation rates and purchasing power among Norwegian workers. The survey serves as a vital tool for gauging economic sentiment among various stakeholders, including economists, labor representatives, business leaders, and households.
Overall, the findings from the Norges Bank survey illustrate a cautiously optimistic outlook regarding wage growth in Norway, while also highlighting concerns about the real value of wages in relation to expected inflation. Keeping a close eye on these developments will be essential for policymakers and stakeholders as they navigate the complex landscape of Norway's evolving economy.
