Saudi Arabia is reportedly gearing up for a potential military strike against Iran by the United States, as indicated by sources in Riyadh speaking to Reuters. Although the Saudi government has declined to comment on this information, similar strategies were employed previously, particularly in the summer of 2025, when Saudi Arabia raised its oil exports following a U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. This move reflects the kingdom's awareness of the geopolitical tensions in the region related to Iran, which contributes to over 3% of the world's oil production.

Iran has voiced threats of retaliation against any U.S. military actions, including the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime passage through which about one-fifth of global oil passes. Such an action would pose significant risks to the flow of oil from the Gulf and could lead to increased global oil prices and insurance premiums. The delicate balance in oil markets is further complicated by recent chaos in regions like the Red Sea, where Houthi forces have threatened blockades in response to Israeli actions in Gaza, creating additional strains on oil logistics.

The situation reveals a multifaceted and fragile geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia anxious about Iran's influence but equally apprehensive about U.S. military aggression. The interplay of these dynamics not only affects regional stability but also has far-reaching implications for global oil markets. The looming threat of an 'intelligent blockade' of the Strait of Hormuz could amplify risks for international trade and energy security, affirming the interconnectedness of regional conflicts and global economic outcomes.