The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has assessed that the fifth year of the war in Ukraine is commencing poorly for Russia. Their latest analysis indicates that Ukraine’s recent victories on the battlefield refute Russian claims that the situation can only deteriorate for Ukraine the longer it avoids capitulating to Russian demands. This position undermines the Russian narrative of inevitable success and highlights the resilience of Ukrainian forces in the current conflict.

As of late February 2026, the battlefield reality illustrates that significant Russian victories are not guaranteed, which further complicates any prospects for a definitive Russian win in the war. Ukraine has achieved some of its most notable victories since it began its offensive in the Kharkiv region in August 2024. Particularly, Ukrainian troops have liberated more territory in the southern Zaporizhzhia region in recent weeks compared to their setbacks during the failed counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. This reflects a marked shift in the dynamics of the conflict.

By the end of last year, Ukraine had solidified its control over Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region, demonstrating ongoing military advancements. The ISW’s report underscores that the local conditions in Ukraine are evolving significantly, signaling potential shifts in the war's trajectory and casting doubt on Russia's strategy moving forward. The report not only highlights military developments but also suggests that the narrative surrounding the war is increasingly being shaped by Ukrainian successes, challenging the long-standing assumptions about the conflict's inevitability in favor of Russia's dominance.