Recent electoral polls and projections have revealed a sense of frustration among allies of President Lula following the introduction of popular measures like the income tax exemption for those earning up to R$ 5,000 per month. Direct collaborators of the president anticipated that these economic measures would bolster his popularity significantly, particularly as he prepares for another presidential election in October. However, the data suggests that the expected increase in electoral capital has not yet materialized for Lula, who is facing a competitive landscape as the elections approach.

The electoral landscape is becoming increasingly challenging, particularly with the rise of his likely main opponent, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ). Recent polls indicate that Bolsonaro is consolidating his position as a serious contender in the upcoming election, posing a significant threat to Lula's campaign. As the election draws closer, Lula's allies are concerned as Bolsonaro's visibility and appeal appear to be gaining traction, which could undermine Lula's bid for re-election.

During the Carnival season, quick surveys conducted by government supporters revealed a growing fatigue with Lula's initiatives amidst the political discourse. This data indicates that despite the government's efforts to implement popular economic measures, there is a disconnect between policy changes and public perception, highlighting a possible reevaluation necessary for Lula and his team as they strategize for the upcoming elections. Timing and effective messaging of these initiatives will be crucial in swaying public opinion before the election date.