A researcher suggests that Kyiv and Moscow might reach a peace agreement without concrete security guarantees for Ukraine, although this is currently seen as unrealistic.
The current prospects for Ukraine are grim, according to a researcher who emphasizes that a just peace would involve the prosecution of Kremlin leaders at the International Court in The Hague, withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine, and the return of prisoners and abducted children. However, the feasibility of such outcomes appears low at the present time. The researcher highlights that the U.S. has more leverage and may pressure Ukraine more than Russia, which is concerning given the historical context of negotiations and military support.
The mention of events from February 28 of last year illustrates how Ukraine's position can weaken if U.S. support is discontinued, recalling a time when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was reportedly undermined in negotiations at the White House, leading to a halt in crucial military supplies from the U.S. This raises possibilities of what could happen if U.S. provisions were cut again, including significant military systems and intelligence sharing that are vital for Ukraine's defense against Russian aggression.
Despite Ukraine gradually softening some of its initial demands in peace talks, the ongoing complexities of international diplomacy and security guarantees remain a significant challenge. The researcher notes the paradox that Europe is financially contributing to the war, but the U.S. plays a crucial role as a key influencer in the peace process which is critical for the future stability of the region.
