In an analysis reflecting on the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Peeter Kaldre emphasizes the weight of responsibility on Ukraine and the strategic implications for NATO. He notes that opinions about the war's future vary widely; some believe Russia will ultimately prevail, while others argue its economy cannot sustain a prolonged conflict. The critical focus is on how the war's conclusion could shape European security dynamics.

Kaldre draws attention to an article by analysts Samuel Charap and Hiski Haukkala in Foreign Affairs, which argues for the necessity of contemplating a 'deceptive ceasefire.' This notion is crucial, as it points out the potential for a temporary peace that might create further complications rather than resolve the deep-rooted issues. Kaldre warns that a false sense of security could embolden Vladimir Putin’s ambitions, suggesting that Western powers, particularly those in Washington, should rethink NATO's role and possibly integrate Ukraine into its strategic framework.

Overall, Kaldre presents a cautionary view on the future of European security, challenging leaders to reassess their strategies in light of the ongoing conflict. He evokes a sense of urgency for NATO to evolve into a 'NATO 3.0' that includes Ukraine, underlining the geopolitical shifts stemming from the war and how they might redefine Europe’s collective security arrangements.