Analysis: Russia has occupied more territory in the fourth year of war than in the previous two
Russia has increased its territorial gains in the ongoing conflict by occupying an additional 4,524 square kilometers since the third anniversary of its invasion, surpassing the total area captured in the second and third years of the war.
Since February 24, 2025, marking the third anniversary of the invasion, Russian forces have seized an area of 4,524 square kilometers. This marks a significant increase compared to the territorial gains recorded during the second and third years of the conflict. The data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in partnership with the Critical Threats Project, highlights this concerning trend in the ongoing war. The Critical Threats Project is part of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), which focuses on conflict research.
The analysis reveals an alarming pattern of territorial acquisition by Russian troops, indicating not only their ability to sustain operations but also to expand their control amid the protracted conflict. This increase in seized territory underscores the challenges faced by Ukraine and its allies in repelling the Russian invasion. Furthermore, the ongoing territorial gains could influence geopolitical dynamics in the region, affecting diplomatic strategies and military responses from Ukraine and Western nations.
The broader implications of this territorial expansion by Russia suggest a potential shift in the balance of power within the region, as sustained gains may embolden Russian military strategy while heightening concerns among neighboring countries. The significance of these developments lies in their potential to alter long-term regional stability and prompting heightened international responses to counteract Russia's ongoing ambitions in the area.