The Italian economy is being closely monitored through its GDP, as indicated by two major national business associations, Confindustria and Confcommercio, which have differing outlooks for 2026. Both associations express optimism regarding future trends; however, Confcommercio focuses on consumer demand as a critical driver for the upcoming months, while Confindustria highlights the uncertainties in the international landscape for 2025. Despite these concerns, a recent energy decree offers a hopeful perspective for the future.

The Conjuncture Report by Confcommercio indicates that the recovery of the Italian economy is progressing, albeit slowly, with a positive trend in consumer spending evidenced by January's figures. Based on this encouraging data, economists predict that Italy's GDP could reach a growth of 1% by 2026. Following a slight growth of 0.3% in January, there is an expectation of a further positive adjustment of 0.2% in February, bolstering optimism about economic resilience.

Overall, while consumer confidence appears to be strengthening and contributing to economic growth, businesses remain cautious due to potential international challenges. The contrasting perspectives from Confindustria and Confcommercio illustrate the complexities of the current economic landscape, where consumer behavior is becoming increasingly vital for sustained recovery against a backdrop of global uncertainty.