The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has now reached its fourth anniversary, yet the resolution to this conflict remains elusive. Since the onset of hostilities, over 15,000 civilians have been reported killed, according to United Nations sources. Moreover, the humanitarian crisis continues to escalate, with around 5.9 million people having fled the country and 3.7 million displaced internally due to ongoing air raid alerts and insecurity. Currently, about 20% of Ukraine's territory is occupied by Russian forces, which adds to the challenges of achieving a ceasefire.

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have been slow and fraught with disagreements, particularly regarding the eastern Donetsk region, where both sides hold differing territorial claims. While Ukraine controls slightly over 20% of the region and is open to a ceasefire under certain conditions, Russia shows no indication of retreating from its ambition to occupy the entire region. Throughout this standoff, former U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed his desire to mediate peace talks between the two nations, resulting in direct discussions last year, but no significant agreements have emerged.

Looking ahead, ensuring a lasting peace will require a careful balancing act from both Russia and Ukraine as they continue to engage in talks without alienating Trump and navigating the complexities of military engagements on the front lines. The future negotiations are expected to also address the prevention of further Russian aggression and the terms for the international coalition’s involvement in Ukraine, with both sides still at odds over the specifics of security guarantees, setting the stage for a protracted diplomatic struggle in the time to come.