In a recent article for the Estonian newspaper Postimees, historian Jüri Kotšinev argues that the current Russian government is on the brink of collapse. The internal pressures resulting from Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine are characterized as overwhelming, suggesting that President Putin's regime is unable to arrest the decline that began with the invasion on February 24, 2022. Kotšinev highlights that unlike in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea when there was still room for maneuvering, the current situation is irreversible.

Kotšinev draws historical parallels to past upheavals in Russia that resulted in significant governmental restructuring. He references the Time of Troubles following Tsar Boris Godunov's reign, which ultimately gave way to the Romanov dynasty in 1613. He also cites the 1917 revolution and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 as critical moments of radical change in Russian governance. Each instance, according to Kotšinev, points to a cycle of turmoil leading to a new order, suggesting that Russia is again approaching such a pivotal moment.

The implications of this analysis are profound, providing insight into the future political landscape of Russia. If Kotšinev's predictions hold true, the fallout from a collapse of the current administration could have significant repercussions not just within Russia but also for the wider geopolitical landscape, particularly in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet states, where stability is already under threat. His assessment invites further discussion on how the international community might respond to such a seismic event.