In his commentary, Renaud Girard discusses the dire consequences of Russia's military actions in Ukraine, which began four years ago with an invasion intended to quickly seize Kiev and establish a puppet government. Initially, Putin believed his forces would be welcomed by Ukrainian citizens and that the operation would be a quick success aimed at curbing NATO's eastward expansion while reclaiming fertile lands. Instead, the conflict has evolved into a prolonged and costly engagement with severe losses for the Russian military.

Girard argues that what was forecasted as a swift operation turned into a strategic failure for Russia. The anticipated rapid conquest was upended by fierce Ukrainian resistance, supported by Western allies. As the initial objectives remained unfulfilled, the situation has led to a reassessment of Russia's military capabilities and political strategy, revealing significant weaknesses in the Kremlin's planning and execution of the war.

The commentary raises questions about the broader implications of this prolonged conflict, both for Russia's internal dynamics and its foreign relations. With mounting casualties and international isolation, the war has become a quagmire, challenging the Kremlin’s narrative and impacting its standing on the global stage. Girard's insights serve as a critical examination of the strategic miscalculations made by Russia and highlight the need for a reevaluation of military and diplomatic approaches moving forward.