On Monday, October 23, the Brazilian real is facing depreciation against the dollar, which has risen by 0.15% to a value of R$ 5.1838. This increase is significantly influenced by recent developments in U.S. tariff policies, especially following the U.S. Supreme Court's decision on October 20 to overturn tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump. Trump's announcement, indicating that he has stronger methods to introduce new tariffs, has kept investor sentiment focused on trade policy, creating volatility in the markets.

The tariff policy dynamics took a notable turn when Trump declared on October 21 that the tariff rate would increase from 10% to 15%, adding to the market's anxiety over potential trade conflicts. As a result of the uncertainty in trade relations, fluctuations in the stock market have been observed, highlighted by the Brazilian stock index, Ibovespa, which rose by 1.06% to close at 190,534 points, marking a new high point. Investors reacted to the court's decision by shifting their positions, leading to a reduction in the dollar’s value to R$ 5.1758, marking the lowest point since May 2024.

Additionally, in response to the evolving economic landscape, Brazilian economists have lowered inflation forecasts for 2026 from 3.95% to a lower figure. This adjustment reflects a response to both domestic economic indicators and the broader implications of international trade policies on Brazil’s economic stability. The complexities surrounding tariff policies are expected to continue influencing both inflation predictions and currency stability in Brazil.