Iceland is considering holding a public referendum on whether to restart EU membership negotiations as early as August, according to unconfirmed sources reported by Politico. Initially, the referendum was anticipated to take place next year, but two unnamed sources have indicated that geopolitical changes, including the United States' trade policies and the Trump administration's threats regarding Greenland, are influencing this potential schedule. An official announcement about the referendum date is expected within weeks.

The backdrop of this development includes Iceland's paused negotiations with the EU since 2013, with the current government committing to hold a referendum on the matter in 2027. However, the unusual geopolitical climate, notably the EU's plans concerning partial EU membership for Ukraine, is prompting a reevaluation of Iceland's position on EU membership. This current discussion around fast-tracking the referendum could reflect broader regional responses to changes occurring in the global political landscape.

Furthermore, Iceland's inclusion in the EEA agreement, alongside Norway and Liechtenstein, means that its potential EU membership carries implications not only for its own economic and political future but also for the dynamics of the EEA as a whole. Thus, the anticipated decision about the referendum could signal significant shifts in Iceland's foreign relations and influence EU relations, especially in the context of its historical and ongoing ties to both Europe and the United States.