President Trump's recent decision to impose a 15% global tariff on imports follows a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated previous tariffs, affecting various countries differently. A report from the trade research group Global Trade Alert analyzed the situation and found that countries like China and Brazil, which were already subject to higher tariffs, will see a notable reduction in their effective tariff rates, while US allies like South Korea and the UK will experience increases. The analysis highlights a clear divide between winners and losers from this new tariff regime, where the shifting dynamics favor non-allied nations.

The new tariffs are set to take effect on February 24, following Trump’s invocation of Section 122 of the Trade Act to address a purported significant trade deficit. Despite the intention to protect US interests, it is pointed out that the very countries Trump has frequently criticized, such as China and Brazil, are set to gain from this policy. In stark contrast, countries like Italy and the UK, which previously benefited from lower tariffs, will now face increased burdens due to the uniform implementation of the 15% rate.

Moreover, the report raises questions about the rationale behind applying such a blanket tariff, especially considering that China remains the US's largest trade deficit partner, yet stands to benefit from reduced tariffs. Experts, including Johannes Fritz of Global Trade Alert, suggest that this shift could encourage countries targeted by Trump's previous tariff policies to strengthen their economic ties with one another, potentially undermining the influences of US trade policy and further complicating international trade relations.