The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has reported a sustained increase in global sea surface temperatures, staying well above average from November 2025 to January 2026. This trend has been particularly pronounced in the subtropical oceans of both hemispheres, although the equatorial region of the Pacific, east of the international dateline, experienced slightly lower temperatures compared to normal levels. This variability has resulted in a mild La Niña condition, affecting weather patterns due to the temperature differences between eastern and western parts of the ocean.

During this period, the Indian Ocean's Dipole has remained in a negative phase, with warmer than normal sea temperatures observed near Indonesia. However, the intensity of this warmth is now gradually decreasing, which suggests that we are at a turning point in oceanic conditions. As we move closer to March 2026, the situation is expected to evolve further, particularly regarding the equatorial Pacific region.

Forecasts suggest that between March and May 2026, we might witness significant shifts in sea surface temperatures, particularly as the current weak La Niña conditions are anticipated to come to an end. Such changes could have far-reaching implications for global weather patterns and climate conditions, making it essential to monitor these developments closely for their potential impact on weather extremes and climate resilience.