In the realm of politics, there exists an uncontrollable variable known as the 'imponderable,' which can disrupt electoral processes without warning. These factors can emerge at any moment and from any direction, profoundly impacting voter sentiments and campaign strategies. This unpredictability can lead to significant incidents or accidents that disrupt meticulously planned events, as campaigns often follow a trajectory laid out by marketing strategists.

The author recounts a historical event from the 1986 elections in Piauí, Brazil, where a large rally for candidate Freitas Neto was set to culminate in a concert by popular singer Elba Ramalho. Despite extensive preparations and promotions, which drew large crowds eager for the festivities, mismanagement in the timing of equipment deliveries led to a chaotic situation when an unexpected heavy rainstorm struck. This moment serves as a metaphor for the unpredictable nature of politics — much like the weather, the political landscape can change suddenly and dramatically, affecting outcomes in unforeseen ways.

The piece emphasizes the importance of acknowledging these unpredictable elements in political campaigns and the necessity for candidates and strategists to remain adaptable. Campaigns may appear solid and well-planned, but the imponderable can reshape electoral maps in an instant, underscoring the need for flexibility and real-time response strategies in the world of politics.