The article critically examines assertions made by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) regarding Ukraine's territorial advances in February, suggesting that claims of a 201 km² gain during tactical counter-attacks are misrepresentative and overly optimistic. The report, which coincided with the approach of the fourth anniversary of Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, had been widely reported and touted as the country's most significant territorial recovery since the start of the 2023 counter-offensive.

However, upon deeper analysis, the article argues that the data provided by ISW may not support the narrative of substantial territorial gains, highlighting that the reported advances included several small villages rather than significant urban centers or strategic locations. This misinterpretation of the situation has led to inflated expectations and a misunderstanding of the complexities on the battlefield, underscoring the unpredictable nature of warfare. Additionally, the claims were seen as arising at a particularly sensitive time, just before a key anniversary that marked the beginning of broader conflict phases.

By scrutinizing the information disseminated by ISW and the resulting media frenzy, the article emphasizes the need for more cautious interpretation of military gains in ongoing conflicts. This scenario illustrates the broader implications of how data from conflict analysis can impact public perception and potentially influence strategic decisions, thereby affecting international support and policy regarding Ukraine.