Economists from the Penn-Wharton Budget Model have estimated that the US Supreme Court could rule that over $175 billion in tariffs collected under former President Donald Trump's emergency measures should be refunded. The calculations, prepared for Reuters, analyze tariff rates by product and country against the specific taxes implemented by Trump. This scenario hinges on the legality of the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

The Supreme Court is expected to make a decision regarding the legality of these tariffs soon, with potential implications for importers who may need to rush to file for refunds with the U.S. Customs and Border Protection if the tariffs are invalidated. Lysle Boller, a senior economist involved in this analysis, noted that the calculations are based on comprehensive data that highlight the economic impact of these tariffs both domestically and internationally.

The ruling could not only affect a significant amount of money collected under these emergency tariffs but also reshape the landscape of U.S. trade policies initiated during Trump’s administration. The outcome of this case could set a precedent for future tariff implementations and legal challenges regarding the powers of the presidency in enacting such measures without congressional approval.