The probability of large discoveries is greatest in the Barents Sea
A recent report indicates that the probability of discovering significant oil and gas resources in the Barents Sea is the highest in Norwegian waters, where 54% of the resources remain underexplored.
A new resource accounting report for 2025 highlights that oil production on the Norwegian continental shelf reached its highest level since 2009. Nadine Mader-Kayser, the deputy director for Analysis at the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, noted that the high production levels of both liquids and gas mean that reserve additions are replacing approximately 60% of the production. This strong output is a positive indicator for Norway’s energy sector, reflecting efficient resource management and exploration efforts.
The report specifically points to the Barents Sea as a critical area for future discoveries, with around 54% of its resources located in regions that are currently not open to petroleum activities. This indicates significant untapped potential, which could lead to substantial developments in Norway's energy resources if these areas are eventually explored. However, while the chances of finding large new reserves are promising, the report also acknowledges that there are significant uncertainties associated with exploration in these parts of the sea.
The implications of these findings are substantial, not just for Norway’s economy but also for global energy markets. The Barents Sea could play a vital role in meeting future energy demands and securing Norway's position as a key player in the oil and gas industry. Discussions around opening these regions to exploration will likely intensify as stakeholders weigh the economic benefits against environmental concerns and geopolitical considerations.