3 Scenarios for the Future of the Palestinian Authority: Which is Most Likely?
The article discusses three potential futures for the Palestinian Authority in light of increasing Israeli pressure and territorial losses.
The current phase the Palestinian Authority (PA) is experiencing is described as the most critical juncture since its establishment in 1994. According to the program "Scenarios" on February 19, 2026, the PA faces three possible fates: collapse under Israeli pressure, the radical decision to dissolve itself, or the initiation of a comprehensive national reconciliation that would redefine the Palestinian project. These scenarios emerge amid unprecedented Israeli measures against the PA and escalating efforts to annex parts of the West Bank.
Recently, on the 8th of this month, Israel approved historic decisions to register Palestinian lands in Area C, which accounts for more than 61% of the West Bank, categorizing them as "state lands" unless Palestinian ownership can be proven. This is contingent upon extraordinarily difficult conditions requiring historical and land survey documentation that may not only be challenging to produce but possibly nonexistent. As a result, the Palestinian territorial ownership continues to decline alarmingly, from controlling 82% of the land within the green line in 1948 to significantly less today.
The article emphasizes the gravity of the situation as it outlines the implications of these three scenarios for the Palestinian Authority's future and the broader Palestinian cause. The consideration of self-dissolution or national reconciliation presents a dilemma for Palestinian leadership and raises critical questions about the viability and strategy of their governance and resistance against ongoing Israeli encroachment on their lands.