According to intelligence assessments, Russian President Vladimir Putin is convinced that he is winning the war against Ukraine. He reportedly believes that establishing full control over the Donbas region could take 18 months to two years, but sees the ongoing conflict as providing him with increasing advantages, with daily missile and drone strikes bolstering his position. Recent reports also indicate that the Russian economy is struggling significantly as the war drags on.

The article discusses the internal and external pressures facing Putin, including ongoing economic hardships in Russia and diplomatic overtures from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has proposed substantial investments in Russia in exchange for ending the war. Analysts are suggesting that despite these challenges, Putin might still consider negotiating a ceasefire in Ukraine, especially if he can secure a broad rapprochement with the United States and the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from territories under Russian control.

Furthermore, there is mention of V. Zalužnas blaming President V. Zelensky for certain decisions, implying that strategic choices during this war have been influenced by longstanding partnerships. This reflects the complex dynamics at play in the conflict as military, economic, and diplomatic factors intertwine, affecting the future trajectory of the war in Ukraine and the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe.