Uncertainty due to the effect of the increase in some taxes keeps inflation on the rise, warns Jonathan Heath
Jonathan Heath of Banco de México indicates that rising inflation projections may be underestimated due to the uncertain effects of recent fiscal adjustments.
Jonathan Heath, the deputy governor of the Banco de México, expressed concerns regarding the rising inflation rates in Mexico, as the bank's recent projections have increased. These projected inflation rates, while still below those anticipated by experts and private sector initiatives, reflect a deep-seated uncertainty tied to the effects of recent tax increases. Heath noted that the uncertainty surrounding the duration and impact of these fiscal adjustments may lead to significant delays in their visible effects on inflation.
Heath emphasized that the balance of risks associated with inflation continues to skew upward, indicating that there is a greater risk of underestimating future inflation rather than overestimating it. This sentiment comes amidst discussions surrounding the potential pause in interest rate adjustments, where he noted that critical elements supporting this decision were overlooked. Specifically, he's referenced the diminishing dynamic of inflationary trends as well as substantial forecasting errors that have plagued estimates in the previous year.
Furthermore, Heath stated that moving forward, it will be paramount to vigilantly monitor the developments in relevant economic data to adapt to the rapidly shifting landscape caused by these fiscal measures. The implications of these projections are significant for economic policymakers and stakeholders as they navigate the complexities of maintaining inflation at manageable levels in the face of changing fiscal policies.