Friedrich Merz is set to attend his first CDU party congress as Chancellor in Stuttgart this Friday, a moment that ordinarily would be celebrated, reflecting a triumphant return to power after a lengthy period in opposition. However, the atmosphere is far from celebratory, as Merz's leadership is already under scrutiny due to unrealistic expectations raised before the federal elections, resulting in widespread disappointment among party members. Despite returning the CDU to power after three and a half years, the party's current standing in polls is concerning, sitting below its disastrous 28.5% result from the Bundestag elections.

The stakes are high for Merz, especially since he is experiencing declining approval ratings, exacerbated by criticisms from within the CDU about his leadership and decision-making. His so-called 'high rate of blunders' has added to the internal strife, which many feel jeopardizes the party's unity and future electoral prospects. As the party members gather for the congress, all eyes will be on Merz as they anticipate the outcomes of significant votes scheduled for Friday afternoon, which will ultimately reflect his standing in the party.

The challenges Merz faces during this critical congress may have broader implications for the CDU’s direction as they navigate the tumultuous landscape of German politics. If Merz leaves the congress without serious political damage, it may provide a temporary reprieve in confidence among his party colleagues. Still, if dissatisfaction persists, it could signal a stronger push for new leadership or alternative strategies to revitalize the party, indicating a pivotal moment for the CDU moving forward.