According to estimates from Reuters, Russia's revenues from oil and gas are projected to fall by nearly half in February 2025, amounting to approximately 410 billion rubles (about $5.35 billion) compared to the same month in the previous year. This stark decline is attributed to a stronger national currency and lower global oil prices, which have a significant impact on the country's economy. With oil and gas revenue representing over a fifth of the federal budget, this decline poses challenges for the Kremlin, especially as it deals with increased expenses related to defense and security since the onset of military operations in Ukraine in February 2022.

The forecasts are based on production data for oil and gas, refining activities, and the state of domestic and international supply markets. Although there is expectation of a slight month-over-month increase of 3.1% in January revenues due to a subsidy known as amortization payment—typically disbursed during the winter months—the overall trajectory appears troubling for the Kremlin. This financial vulnerability emphasizes the need for Russia to stabilize its revenue sources amidst fluctuating market conditions.

The anticipated decrease in revenue comes at a time when the government has already faced unprecedented fiscal pressure due to defense spending resulting from the conflict in Ukraine. As cash flows from oil and gas diminish, the Kremlin may need to reassess its financial strategies and budget allocations to ensure stability in the face of economic headwinds.